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Nov 2, 2020

Monday Night Football: Brady, Bucs Up to -12.5 At Giants

The 5-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-6 New York Giants on Monday Night Football on TSN. Tampa Bay is fresh off back-to-back wins over the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders, while New York blew an 11-point, fourth-quarter lead in Week 7 at Philadelphia.

Chris Amberley (@chrisamberley)

Tom Brady , The Canadian Press

The 5-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-6 New York Giants on Monday Night Football on TSN.

Tampa Bay is fresh off back-to-back wins over the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders, while New York blew an 11-point, fourth-quarter lead in Week 7 at Philadelphia.

This game is a total mismatch on paper, as evidenced by the lofty 12.5-point spread in the Bucs favour.

However, underdogs have crushed in Week 8, going 9-3 ATS including six outright victories.

Can the G-Men keep it close in prime time and cover? Let’s dive into the matchup to figure it out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Line: Buccaneers -12.5

Total: 45.0

DVOA Darlings

The Buccaneers are the No. 1 team by DVOA, ranking first on the defensive side of the ball and sixth on offence.

Tom Brady has thrown his hat in to the MVP conversation, racking up 15 TD passes to just one interception over his past five games.

Derrick Henry and Tom Brady earn AFC/NFC Offensive Player of the Month honors after dominating in October 😤 pic.twitter.com/JguV6aZL2r

Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL with 31.7 points per game, while Brady’s outlook on Monday Night Football looks particularly strong against a suspect New York pass defence.

The Giants rank bottom-10 in yards per pass attempt allowed, and will be missing three of its premier pass rushers from the start of the season – Lorenzo Carter, Oshane Ximines, and Markus Golden.

New York is surrendering 356.3 yards and 24.9 points per outing, despite having faced four backup quarterbacks through the first seven weeks of 2020.

Dominant Defenders

The G-Men’s prospects on offence look bleak to say the least, up against a Bucs defence permitting a league-low 291.3 yards per game.

Tampa Bay boasts Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 coverage unit, and ranks top-five in both run defence and pressure rate.

When you’re No. 1 in total defense, you’ve got to have handshakes 🤝 pic.twitter.com/pdENzjZaT1

The Buccaneers have held five of seven opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, while New York has eclipsed 21 points just once in 2020, and that came against Dallas’ 32nd-ranked defence.

It’s still early, but at the moment #NYGiants QB Daniel Jones is #2 for rushing in Week 7. #SocialDistanceTackle pic.twitter.com/ihRXmxrTOX

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has regressed severely in his sophomore season, posting just 201.4 passing yards per game, including a measly 6.1 yards per attempt.

Don’t expect a breakout game for Danny Dimes here, especially given the fact that he’ll be operating behind an offensive line missing one if it’s most important pieces in Will Hernandez.

The Verdict

Despite the previous success of underdogs this week, it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Giants keep this game close.

New York is the only team to lose six of its first seven games in three of the past four seasons, and are 0-7 against the spread as a home ‘dog since the start of 2019.

Going back even further, the Giants are 1-12 ATS at home in their past 13 games as an underdog.

Still, laying nearly two touchdowns is not something I’m particularly keen on doing. Tampa Bay -7 in the first half is the play I’d be looking to make.

Upon Further Review

Chris Godwin is slated to miss Monday’s game with a finger injury, setting up increased opportunity for Scotty Miller, who’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5.

Scotty Miller, certified deep threat. Another TD for the Bowling Green alum: pic.twitter.com/TZ4EkKOfbW

The second-year receiver has become one of Brady’s go-to targets, and leads the team in receiving yards.

He’s cleared 70 yards in four of six games this season, and is fresh off a six-catch, 109-yard performance versus the Raiders.

He is currently being undervalued by oddsmakers and is an excellent fantasy option for owners looking for a bye-week fill-in.

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